NASA Satellite Could Disintegrate Over Ireland

Edited byMark Dunphy

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NASA's Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite. Image credit NASA

A bus-sized U.S. satellite has a one in 45 change of burning up over Ireland and depositing debris across a wide area over the next four days.

That’s according to Astronomy Ireland, which says NASA’s Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) is due to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere sometime between Wednesday and Saturday.

Re-entry is affected by a number of factors, including orbit, movement of the satellite, and solar wind.  Scientists are predicting that the satellite’s orbit will bring it directly over Ireland, roughly in a line between Galway and Wexford.

If UARS re-enters the atmosphere over Ireland, observers will be able to see the spectacular disintegration of the satellite, and it is likely that debris may fall over a wide area. As the re-entry is uncontrolled, NASA scientists are currently unable to predict where the satellite will fall although thr debris field could be up to 500 kilometres in width.

The UARS (Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite) is a bus-sized piece of kit launched by NASA (was taken up by the Shuttle Discovery) in 1991. One of the main goals of the satellite was to investigate the ozone layer. It is 35 feet long, 15 feet in diameter, weighs 13,000 pounds, and carries 10 instruments. UARS orbits at an altitude of 375 miles with an orbital inclination of 57 degrees.

According to Conor Farrell, Project Manager, Astronomy Ireland: “When large satellites re-enter the atmosphere they’re done in a controlled manner: both the Mir space station and the European ATV Johannes Kepler were deorbited over the Pacific where there was the least chance of human injury. The problem with UARS is that it’s uncontrolled, and its orbit is very quickly decaying due to the extremely thin atmosphere right at the edge of space. This gas is enough to drag the craft back into the atmosphere, but when that will actually happen is anyone’s guess; all we know is that the UARS will be no more by the end of the week.”

“UARS will re-enter the atmosphere somewhere along its predicted flight path, and it passes over Ireland a number of times over the expected days of re-entry. As a result, there is a small – but real – chance of the craft burning up over Ireland, and dropping fragments of the craft across the island and the UK”, Conor added.

The current chance of debris injuring a person stands at 1 in 3200, meaning it is very low risk. Astronomy Ireland will monitor updates from NASA over the coming days and update the UARS webpage.

UARS Obit

Wednesday, Sept 21st - 408am. Image AI

Thursday, Sept 22nd - 345am. Image AI

Saturday, Sept 24th - 251am. Image AI

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